INTRODUCTION
“A few profit—and the many pay.”
(War is a Racket by US Brigadier General Smedley D Butler, 1935)
This article is a follow-up to Trump’s Minor Strategic Victory In The Middle East which overviews the economic motives for decades of war in the Middle East. Below you will find greater context, updates on previous events, and new events to consider. Overall it is clear the land of Iraq and its people have been raped by forces which have had no intention of bringing them liberty or justice.
Government is always used as a tool by the powerful to sustain their power at the expense of everyone else. History has demonstrated repeatedly that economic and political motives drive national military objectives, and morality is merely engineered to recruit people to pay, fight, and die. For a deep dive on a century of war by companies competing over control of Mesopotamian oil, see my post Middle Eastern Wars and the Petroleum Question.
War is theater. A nation gains strategic victory by using the curtain of war as a cover for achieving economic and political objectives, and then ends military operations in a way that ensures those objectives are retained. Then, the audience will rejoice that there was a war but it ended, and they won’t realize the details which have changed on the stage. Behind the curtain the stage was set for the next act. Nobody in the audience complains or cares about the changes because the show goes on and that is what they came for. For those interested in the truth, this article is for you.
ECONOMIC INVESTMENTS
Naked Capitalism has recently echoed the claims I made in my previous article, and confirm that the US war on Iraq has an economic motive, but it only highlights a few key points. There is so much investment happening in Iraq today that it is hard to tell the entire story and comment properly on each event. The following is a quick glance at news this month regarding the economic projects moving forward in Iraq.
Iraq is OPEC’s second largest producer at about 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd), and wants to increase to 7 million bpd by 2029 if OPEC limits are increased or if they leave OPEC. This would be a further windfall of profits for Chevron, TotalEnergies, Haliburton, Exxon Mobile, BP, Qatari and UAE companies, and other US and EU firms. Iraq is also expected to work on plans for a joint maritime fleet with the US and several other nations to assist exporting crude oil. EU officials will meet in Iraq this week to discuss cooperation on energy infrastructure and transport.
Baghdad has called for relaxing state control on infrastructure development and beginning of work with “the private sector” in “public-private partnerships.” Iraq has opened oil fields to foreign investors as partners rather than mere contractors. One analyst has claimed the US role in Iraq is to replace Russian and Chinese companies.
On June 16 the Iraqi government announced that disarmament of militia groups and all citizens is tied to US projects such as the Starlink operating licence, Chevron’s control over West Qurna-2 and Nasiriyah oil fields, protection for Hunt Oil and HKN Energy oil operations, Western Zagros and Hunt resuming operations, an Excelerate Energy LNG terminal at Khor Zubair, and a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with TI Capital to fix up the Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline. HKN will also control oil fields in NE Syria. Syria has also signed a development agreement with ConocoPhillips and Novaterra. This shows both nations are simultaneously being developed rapidly by the same network of US and allied nation companies.
A UAE-Iraq port deal will connect a new trade corridor between the GCC, Turkey, and the EU. Iraq’s western Anbar province has plans to integrate electricity infrastructure with Jordan. India hopes for Kurdistan to maintain long run oil exports as its biggest supplier. Iraq activated the International Road Transport system and 7 international trade routes, formally completing a first shipment from Jordan through to the UAE.
Iraq says it won’t need borrowed funds from foreign lenders if it digs new wells and transports oil by land to the north. Iraq ordered oil companies to increase output to pre-Iran-war levels and revive Ceyhan transit. Iraqi government oil companies will dig two new exploration wells in northern Iraq. Iraq and Turkey will restart talks to revive a Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline to boost oil to the EU. Turkey rejected extension of the 1973 Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline transit deal set to expire in mid-July but called for a new agreement instead.
Pearl Petroleum, which is 70% controlled by 2 UAE companies Dana and Crescent, will invest 10 billion to develop north Iraqi gas fields. Crescent is owned by the Jafar family which moved from Iraq to the UAE. Pearl has been in northern Iraq since its 2007 3.9 billion natural gas infrastructure deal.
A US June deal with Iraq puts US oil companies into the western oil fields where sanctions ejected Russia’s Lukoil. Chevron acquired Russian Lukoil’s share in a western oil field, which is one of the biggest in Iraq and the world. The Basra oil field control, which was 75% owned by Russian Lukoil but due to US sanctions was transferred to an Iraqi state oil company, has declared force majeure over the continued Hormuz situation.
Iraq’s PM will sign a deal with US companies to restart the Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline when he visits the US in mid-July. TotalEnergies wants a pipeline to Syria like the one they had in 1928 after the Red Line Agreement. Chevron talked to the Syrian Petroleum Company’s CEO about converting an MOU on Block 1 exploration into an executive contract, as well as about Chevron and two UAE companies’ roles in restoring the Kirkuk-Baniyas Pipeline. The Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline will stay in operation even if Hormuz reopens, with 50,000 bpd slated for transit in July, and other routes through Syria and Turkey will be explored.
“Why don’t those damned oil companies fly their own flags on their personal property—maybe a flag with a gas pump on it?” (Smedley Butler, 1937)
CENTRALIZATION OF POWER
The centralization of power is the greatest evil this world has ever known, ensuring that the few can manipulate and control the many with ease. Iraq has long been a place where tribes armed themselves freely to justly defend against each other, foreign aggression, and the central power of the state, but today the nation state is enacting plans to disarm all citizens and ensure its own monopoly on force. It plans to use that monopoly to facilitate exploitation of resources by foreign companies. The following is a quick glance at news this month regarding the centralization of power in Iraq.
There have been over 600 attacks by allegedly Iran-backed militias in Iraq on US assets since Feb 28, 2026 though it is possible they are Iraqi people defending their resources against exploitation by foreign powers. The US claims it will withdraw its military from Iraq in September if Iraq disarms its people and uses arms against its people to protects US companies. The Iraqi Constitution (written by an American agent) says all unregulated weapons are prohibited which means the PKK, Shia militias, and all citizens, are to be disarmed. The US demanded Iraq set a timeline for disarmament. Barrack threatened sanctions if Iraq doesn’t comply with US demands.
Iraq has formed a joint committee with armed factions to disarm, but have only garnered partial commitment so far. The Iraqi PM has said the coalition mission against ISIS is nearly complete and after the US leaves Iraq there will be “no justification, or any need for resistance” anymore. Iraq has applied a 2005 law against terrorist activity to anyone manufacturing, using, or possessing drones for unlawful purposes.
The Czech ambassador to Iraq signed MOUs on energy and oil, among other things, and called for Baghdad to give investors more confidence that it can deliver stable oil to the EU and provide a safe investment environment without “double taxation.” The US chargé d’affaires in Iraq Joshua Harris says the US won’t work with the Iraqi government if designated terrorist groups participate in the political process, and they must all be disarmed. Iraq and France have pledged to continue working together to counter extremist groups physically and online.
The US wants a veto over what groups can participate in future security and government institutions, even if they disarm. He wants protection for oil companies and control over the level of federal power sharing. Iraqi militias are allegedly a threat to US oil companies working in Iraq and that is why the US demands they be disarmed- “to enable US companies…to resume operations.” Iraq has pledged to protect Kurdish oil wells from drone attacks and says disarming all civilians is non-negotiable.
Iraq hopes for “transforming the PMF into a central mechanism for proxy influence.” The Iraq government is to vote on the Popular Mobilization Forces draft law after its complete formation. The Popular Mobilization Force (PMF) was formed in 2014 as a response to the fall of Mosul, calling for Shia groups to join and defend Iraq from ISIS. ISIS became an enemy to fight for Shia groups rather than fighting the US (how convenient). Further, the PMF resulted in consolidation of central government control over armed groups. The PMF reform law was pulled in 2025 to be voted on after the new Iraqi government fully formed. The new PMF draft law is not published yet but may include PMF integration into the state military and exclusion of terrorist groups.
The Kurdish group PKK has retreated from positions along the Turkish border as Turkey demands the PKK disarm as well. Two main groups including Al Haqq and those under Al Sadr have begun the disarmament process officially. Al Sadr has called for other groups to disarm, but K-Hezzbolah and Al Nujaba resist, and some say these will be sidelined while the PMF and the Kurdish Peshmerga join into a new security force.
The western Anbar province will be targeted by the Iraqi government for military operations after civilian kidnappings by “ISIS” and attacks on civilians during truffle season. Meanwhile Iraq denies Israel has secret bases in the exact same Anbar area “ISIS” is alleged to be operating from caves. In lockstep with the new Iraqi government policies, the IDF claims to have killed an Al Haqq founder and Lebanese Hezbollah trainer (who was previously imprisoned by the US but transferred to Iraq and acquitted) again for his third death.
“The chief aim of any power at any of these conferences has been not to achieve disarmament in order to prevent war but rather to endeavor to get more armament for itself and less for any potential foe.” (War Is A Racket by Smedley Butler, 1935)
GOVERNMENTAL REFORM PRESSURE
Global institutions set conditions on aid that push neoliberal reform on developing nations. The US has used sanctions and economic pressure to force the Iraqi government to set policies friendly to US companies and interests. The following is a quick glance at news this month regarding governmental reforms in Iraq.
The UNDP heads back to Iraq to push economic, governmental, and social reforms on the Iraqi government. Iraq set an “Iraq First strategy” and met with EU leaders and worked with them on national security, countering violent extremism, security sector reform, stability, and peace. The World Bank will continue to fund “public-private partnerships” in Iraq despite the airport deal being cancelled over alleged corruption.
A US court has shown preference to the Iraq government in a dispute with Jordanian commercial firm for $53 million in losses. Iraq seized $85 million, including 70 properties of an ex oil minister, in a graft case. Iraq wants to work with the UN and Kuwait so it is going through a process of solving the missing kuwaiti issue leftover from 1990.
Iraqi banks that were sanctioned by the US and stopped from using USD have finished reforms in anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing, and are now integrated by the Iraq central bank. Iraq has been put on the FATF grey list for money laundering, after it was removed in 2018, putting pressure on Iraq to reform or go broke. Iraq dinar is at about 1450 Dinar to 1 USD and improving this month.
The US has ended a 4 month block on cash transfers to Iraq for “Iraq oil revenues deposited in the US,” which had caused a crash of the Dinar. The amounts are “sufficient for Iraq for months.” This economic blockade on Iraq is now ended because Iraq says it will disarm and dissolve groups the US deems terrorist, and payments will continue only if Iraq carries out that plan. Iraq was unable to export oil via Hormuz because of the blockade there, implying that at least partially the blockade was used to pressure Iraq as well as Iran.
“The WTO regulates national and local governments to prevent them from regulating international trade and investment. In short, it regulates governments to protect corporations.” (Cavanaugh and Mander, 2003)
CONCLUSION
For over a century since the fall of the Ottoman Empire, powerful nations have competed over control of resources and markets in Mesopotamia like hyenas fighting over a corpse. Western and eastern oil companies have competed over control of oil fields and pipelines, power has changed hands many times, and Iraq nationalized its oil for decades, but it is now privatizing its oil in a rampant firesale. A push to disarm and dissolve armed groups in Iraq will solidify the grip the US, GCC, EU, and partner nations (including India and Japan) have put on Iraq for decades. Iraq is now a nation against its own people for the interests of foreign companies and nations. This has been the rape of the Iraqi people.
Joshua Ray Jongema 